Counting cards in blackjack is a way to increase your chances of winning. If
you're good at it, you can actually take the odds and put them in your favor.
This works because card counters raise their bets when a deck rich in cards that
are advantageous to the player comes around. As a general rule of thumb, a deck
rich in 10's is better for the player, because the dealer will bust more often,
and the player will hit a blackjack more often.
Most card counters keep track of the ratio of high cards, or 10's, by counting
them as a +1 or a -1, and then gives the opposite +1 or -1 to the low cards in
the deck. Some systems use a balanced count where the number of low cards is the
same as the number of 10's.
But the most interesting card to me, mathematically, is the 5. There were card
counting systems back in the day that involved doing nothing more than counting
the number of fives that had left the deck, and when the 5's were gone, the player
had a big advantage and would raise his bets.
A good basic strategy player is getting a 99.5% payback percentage from the
casino. Every 5 that's come out of the deck adds 0.67% to the player's expected
return. (In a single deck game, anyway.) That means that, all other things being
equal, having one 5 gone from the deck gives a player a small advantage over the
house.
Having two or three 5's gone from the deck will actually give the player a
pretty significant edge over the casino, and this is when a card counter will
usually raise his bet. The problem with counting 5's and nothing else is that
a deck low in 5's happens pretty rarely, so gaining a big advantage and making
a profit from that situation only comes on rare occasions.
Any card between 2 and 8 that comes out of the deck increases the player's
expectation. And all 9's. 10's, and aces increase the casino's expectation. But
8's and 9's have very small effects on the outcome. (An 8 only adds 0.01% to the
player's expectation, so it's generally not even counted. A 9 only has 0.15% affect
in the other direction, so it's not counted either.)
Understanding the effects the low and high cards have on your expected return
on a bet is the first step in learning to count cards and play blackjack as a
winner.
The author runs several websites with information on blackjack. Please be sure
to visit his new online blackjack
site, or play the free
blackjack games on his other site. Another good resource from the author's
collection of articles is his blackjack
tips article.